Welcome, Banter Fam,
This is our new newsletter featuring the Crypto Banter show notes.
Each day, our research team assembles the doc, which Ran then uses to put the show together.
Unfiltered and raw, here you'll be able to see Ran's thoughts on the topics discussed in the show.
Let’s dive in! And don’t forget to subscribe below!
Ran’s Show Notes
WHAT DID I LEARN:
→ Bitcoin is just a continuous flow of shorts getting wiped, then longs getting wiped: it is quite clear in the Open interest data
→ There continues to be one overarching issue right now, the supply: We all initially thought that FTX had started selling, but they actually have not + many other factors
→ Janet Yellen said that higher for longer rates is by no means a given and she is also optimistic about the economic outlook. According to CME, the market is not pricing in higher for longer rates. Treasury bond tracking ETF ($TLT) is now seeing its highest volume on record with the bond market experiencing a major shift. Job openings are unexpectedly increasing. In a single day, the US added more than half of Bitcoin’s market cap in debt. Stock market is currently in a dangerous spot here, with sell signals going on and S&P ending at its lowest level since June 1st. Fear & Greed index is dumping, entering extreme fear territory.
→ FTX, good news for creditors, looks like Anthropic are raising again - but this time a considerably higher valuation - meaning the chances of more cents on the $ increased
→ SEC motion for apples againstRipple has been dismissed
WHAT CAN I DO:
→ With potential supply coming towards EOY + Stock markets looking to weaken, just be careful
→ The data does line up for their to be another potential flush, heading into the halving etc
→ Seems like this S&P 500 crash could be quite normal, as this is the 23rd daily decline of 1% of this year, but the average year has 30 such declines. Even though this is pretty normal, the market is scared as we are entering the extreme fear territory and chart-wise things are not looking so good. All these dumps could be just part of the cycle and might represent a good discount before continuing up.
→ the ripple case could set the precedence in the forthcoming litigation for SEC against Binance and Coinbase
→ FTX customers could see their full claim now being made whole
BTC:
It is kind of clear what is happening here
The move ups are causing people to gamble long, then when the move does not show signs of strength, people close out, causing a cascade of long liquidations
Has happened the last 4 moves up in the past 2 weeks, Up, longs pile in, all begin to close seeing price going down, causing long liquidations
→ Same as usual:
Must be Binance chart:
Click on indicators + search open interest, must be the one below
→ Ben Cowen still thinks we pushed up to where the death cross took place, and then will continue on the downward trajectory:
https://x.com/intocryptoverse/status/1709219336068513845?s=20
Ben Cowen still looking to play out
______________________________________________________________
THERE IS ONE OVERARCHING ISSUE IN THIS MARKET:
→ At any sign of strength, the is a ridiculous amount of sellers:
The FTX liquidators CONFIRMED still have not started selling:
https://x.com/jdorman81/status/1709280939430523283?s=20
FTX estate STILL havent started selling
The overhang in the market remains substantial:
https://x.com/milesdeutscher/status/1709500158294065163?s=20
Miles tweet
Miners:
→ Here is a perfect depiction of why miners will sell:
https://x.com/josusanmartin/status/1709004719257972939?s=20
the REAL effect the halving will have on miners, good post
→ BUT: if we are going off past cycles, a drop as we know it pre halving is to potentially to be expected, as shown in amazing chart below:
https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1709189665972945160?s=20
Tweet
→ And as Ben has shown us before, it usually happens in Aug + Sep, but who knows, could happen in October:
https://x.com/intocryptoverse/status/1686155621303721984?s=20
Link
→ The data:
Late 2014 market low; August 2015 ‘Market scare’ - about 10 months
Late 2018 market low; March 2020 ‘Market scare’ - about 5 months (black swan)
Late 2022 market low (FTX); Late 2023 ‘market scare’ ??
https://app.intothecryptoverse.com/charts/bull-market-support-band
Link to bull market support band
________________________________________________________________
→ 2 major things happened on the market yesterday, but mostly from a traditional standpoint:
MCCARTHY OUT, MCHENRY IN:
→ McCarthy a couple hours before:
https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1709210384026996966?s=20
If I lose my job, so be it
https://x.com/SpeakerMcCarthy/status/1709186766006071489?s=20
Great clip
→ Official moment he was declared out:
https://x.com/disclosetv/status/1709309475012694033?s=20
Video
→ Walking out, no longer a speaker of the house:
https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1709426123434852621?s=20
Video
→ Just before he was removed: Matt has some things to say:
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1709307848319254863?s=20
Link
Here are some of the key powers and duties associated with the position:
Legislative Powers:
Presiding Over the House:
The Speaker manages and maintains order during debates and voting sessions.
Determines who may speak on the floor and directs members' comments during debates.
Setting the Legislative Agenda:
Plays a significant role in determining which bills and resolutions are considered by the House.
May prioritize certain legislation, effectively influencing the legislative process.
Committee Assignments:
Influences the assignment of members to various committees and may appoint committee chairs.
Voting:
Typically does not vote on legislation unless it is to break a tie or in instances where their vote is politically strategic.
Administrative and Procedural Powers:
Maintaining Order:
Can enforce rules and ensure that legislative procedures are followed.
Holds the authority to discipline members for disorderly behavior.
Managing House Operations:
Oversees various administrative functions, such as appointing staff and ensuring the smooth operation of the House.
Representing the House:
Acts as a spokesperson and representative of the House to the Senate, the President, and the public.
May deliver addresses and make appearances to articulate the legislative agenda or priorities of the House.
Political Powers
Leadership Role:
Often a senior member of the majority party and plays a crucial role in formulating and advancing its political and legislative strategies.
Influence on Policy:
Possesses significant influence in shaping policy and legislative priorities, particularly within their political party.
Party Leadership:
Plays a crucial role in steering the party’s legislative agenda and strategy.
Engages in fundraising and supports party members in their electoral campaigns.
In Special Circumstances:
Presidential Line of Succession:
The Speaker is second in the presidential line of succession, following the Vice President.
Presidential Impeachment:
Plays a vital role in processes like impeachment, ensuring procedures are followed and potentially influencing the direction and strategy of proceedings
→ But look who has stepped in, JUST in the INTERIM:
https://x.com/bitcoinmagazine/status/1709322833053073769?s=52&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Pro-Bitcoin US Congressman Patrick McHenry reportedly becomes temp Speaker of the House
→ And already he is throwing some orders:
https://x.com/WatcherGuru/status/1709366305462042813?s=20
Patrick McHenry for President
→ It looks to really just be a moving of office - but she is out of the Capitol:
Link to above visual
_______________________________________________________________
→ It just seems like the US is in tremendous turmoil, which adds to our further story of a potential stock market move down:
MACRO PERSPECTIVE & STOCK MARKET CRASH:
Introduction
→ Janet Yellen reiterates optimism over US economic outlook, mentioning that the US debt services are manageable for now.
https://archive.ph/CJIj8#selection-4547.15-4547.59
Link to Bloomberg article
Yellen said ‘higher for longer rates’ is by no means a given
→ Among the declarations, she said that higher for longer rates is by no means a given and she is very optimistic about economic outlook.
https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1709291656673976519?s=20
Higher for longer rates is by no means a given
https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1709286749212393885?s=20
Yellen being optimistic about economic outlook
https://x.com/financialjuice/status/1709288405991936420?s=20
Yellen: Debt costs forecast assume reduction in interest rates
Rep. Jamaal Bowman
→ Rep. Jamaal Bowman pulled a fire alarm in Congress.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/jamaal-bowman-pulled-fire-alarm-congress-jail-time?intcmp=tw_fnc
Article and video of Bowman pulling the alarm
→ Bowman’s comments on that
https://x.com/charliekirk11/status/1708880803802087844?s=20
Video of Bowman’s answer
Jamie Dimon’s comments about economy
→ Jamie Dimon’s take on economy.
https://x.com/Investingcom/status/1709061435785961862?s=20
Jamie Dimon: Markets are healthy and the economy is still ok.
https://x.com/Investingcom/status/1708882603695133139?s=20
When asked if rates can go up to 7%, Jamie Dimon’s answer was yes.
Interest rates and FED
→ As we can observe, market is not pricing in higher for longer rates
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
CME interest rate probabilities
→ Another FED member not seeing rate hikes anytime soon
https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1709229891814633697?s=20
Tweet with FED’s Mester view
→ Here are a few considerations in formulating expectations for what the next Federal Reserve pivot has in store for stocks.
https://www.investing.com/analysis/a-federal-reserve-pivot-is-not-necessarily-bullish-200636717 (7 months old)
FED funds rate drawdown S&P500
Bond markets could face a major shift
→ Treasury bond tracking ETF, $TLT is now seeing its highest volume on record. Bond markets are experiencing a major shift.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1709290379328053260?s=20
TLT chart
→ Why a rout in government bonds can be worrying?
Link to an article explaining why the bond rout matters
→ Here’s Peter Schiff’s take on bond yields, saying “If bond yields keep rising at the current pace we are weeks away from a second, far larger wave of bank failures.”
https://x.com/PeterSchiff/status/1709316935186268185?s=20
Peter Schiff’s tweet
→ Could be used as a conclusion. Yields keep rising cause they need to issue so much debt above plan.
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1709254206379454938?s=20
Explanation on yields
Credit event
→ Could there be a credit event? Retrospective.
https://x.com/ProblemSniper/status/1709327951484076179?s=20
US 10-year yield chart and previous crises
→ Michael Gayed (who believe the credit event is underway,) and his take
https://x.com/leadlagreport/status/1708845014527197620?s=20
Michael Gayed’s tweet
→ Unpopular opinion: the Fed will panic and lower rates this year.
https://x.com/leadlagreport/status/1709173018331910493?s=20
Michael’s unpopular opinion about rates
→ Another symptom of a pending credit event, related to credit card losses
https://x.com/GRDecter/status/1709212556903010407?s=20
Symptom of pending credit event
→ Who would have guessed that the credit event would have ended up being the US government?
https://x.com/operationdanish/status/1709400508031479895?s=20
Tweet
Job openings
→ US Job openings unctedly increasing, reaching highest level since May 2023.
https://x.com/Investingcom/status/1709252219638358177?s=20
Investing com tweet with chart
→ This jump of job openings is the biggest since July 2021. The beat on expectations of job openings is the biggest beat since September 2022
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1709213307368845601?s=20
US job openings chart & Kobeissi letter overview
US Debt rising (more than half of Bitcoin’s market cap in one day)
→ Total US debt rises by $275 billion in ONE DAY to a record $33.44 trillion
https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1709323926860694004
Total US debt chart
→ This means that in a single day, the US added more than half of Bitcoin’s entire market cap in debt
https://x.com/Excellion/status/1709383373205205446?s=20
US adding more than half of BTC;s market cap in debt
→ Speaking of debt, currency devaluations typically occur abruptly during debt crises, and now we are assisting a sovereign debt crisis unfold. Bitcoin was created to protect you for this moment.
https://x.com/stackhodler/status/1709479931107844513?s=20
US debt and Bitcoin
Stock market crash
→ The S&P 500 is now down 8.3% since its high after the Fed said they were removing a recession from their forecast.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1709235350806118833?s=20
Kobeissi Letter on S&P being down after FED removed recession from their forecast
→ S&P 500 ends at lowest since June 1 as economic data underscored the view the Federal Reserve may need to keep interest rates high.
Investing com article on stock market crash
→ The #SP500 weekly SuperTrend just gave a sell signal
https://x.com/tonythebullBTC/status/1709276674691314067?s=20
Sell signal for S&P500
→ Markets are currently in a very dangerous spot here.
https://x.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1709266299199590889?s=20
Red flags
→ Stock’s fear & greed index also not looking good. Chart is dumping aggressively. Extreme fear territory.
https://edition.cnn.com/markets/fear-and-greed
Fear & greed index chart (press on Timeline button)
→ 93% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading below their 50-Day moving average.
https://x.com/Barchart/status/1709290997614616946?s=20
Tweet with a chart
→ The SP500 is the most oversold on the daily RSI in all of 2023
https://x.com/tonythebullBTC/status/1709225433961533552?s=20
SP500 chart and RSI
→ But let’s not panic yet. Even though it feels like a crash, actually is the 23rd daily decline of 1% or more this year. This is pretty normal as the average year since 1928 has 30 such declines.
https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1709313917887844712?s=20
Tweet “this is quite normal”
Conclusion
→ It's not necessarily that things take a nasty turn. It could be just a normal cycle reversal which is giving us opportunities to buy at a discount.
https://x.com/ChifoiCristian/status/1709520133561925760?s=20
Interesting take on current market situation
____________________________________________________________
SEC RIPPLE APPEAL DENIED:
SEC RIPPLE APPEAL DENIED:
https://x.com/realXRPwhale/status/1709352893545935201?s=20
Tweet on the sec appeal rejection
https://twitter.com/tier10k/status/1709341555008401506?t=Pow-9ylX9Zi4DjBnNK-4Wg&s=19
SEC appeal denied
XRP’s price rallied >7% on the news.
The reason they filed the appeal in the first place
SEC filed an interlocutory appeal against the July 16 ruling
https://x.com/RippleXrpie/status/1692613105639997703?s=20
August 19 tweet when SEC first decides to file the appeal
SEC says could have a "substantial impact" on other pending litigation ( referring to Binance and Coinbase)
https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.551082/gov.uscourts.nysd.551082.893.0.pdf
Page 15 paragraph 1 & 2
Sale of Ripple's XRP digital token on public exchanges complied with federal securities laws
https://www.reuters.com/legal/us-sec-cannot-appeal-ripple-labs-decision-judge-rules-2023-10-04/
4th paragraph about judge decision
The landmark victory of XRP again the SEC
The Court found that, as a matter of law:
Ripple’s XRP sales on exchanges – not securities.
XRP sales by Ripple executives – not securities.
Ripple’s XRP distributions to developers, to charities, and to employees – not securities.
https://x.com/RipplePandaXRP/status/1681801624342372352?s=20
Tweet on the XRP win (July 20)
3rd paragraph on the court findings (July 19 link)
Ripple Labs Inc did not violate federal securities law by selling its XRP token on public exchanges
1st paragraph
Brad Garlinghouse says “Huge win not just for ripple but for Crypto’
https://x.com/MrFreshTime/status/1680505227290476545?s=20
Summary and Video tweet 0:25 to 0:55
What happened yesterday, SEC denied
SEC's motion for interlocutory appeal DENIED
https://x.com/BillHughesDC/status/1709345748930748708?s=20
Details of the court filing docs
https://x.com/gokhshtein/status/1709350993933033973?s=20
Tweet ‘SEC Suffers Another Loss in Ripple Case’
XRP community showing love for Judge Analisa Torres
https://x.com/Chloe_Le_Pen/status/1709351399912251902?s=20
Tweet from xrp community
Reasons for denying
Judge Torres says no "substantial ground for difference of opinion" found by Judge
https://www.reuters.com/article/fintech-crypto-sec-ripple-idUSKBN31403B
4th paragraph on the link
https://x.com/AshleyPROSPER1/status/1709350366515474460?s=20
Tweet on the “no substantial ground for a difference of opinion”
What next for SEC ?
The case either goes to trial in April, or goes away
https://x.com/attorneyjeremy1/status/1709358286850675193?s=20
Jeremy Hogan comments
On similar note SEC Files Opposition to Motion to Dismiss Coinbase Suit
https://twitter.com/iampaulgrewal/status/1709317024516817068
Tweet from paulgrewal coinbbase legal officer
https://twitter.com/ArcanicNFT/status/1709342230903668908?t=xyXiu7Ogz75S52YlBrjzOA&s=19
Gensler Right Now (funny)
___________________________________________________________
FTX the ongoing Saga : SBF Trial
Recap of hearing yesterday
SBF’s quiet first day in court
1st paragraph of the article
No Jury yet, the shortlist is ongoing and likely to be finalized today
https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2023/10/04/no-jury-yet-but-were-getting-there/
2nd paragraph
https://x.com/innercitypress/status/1709260124991131668?s=20
0:55 to 1:30
Detailed list of events inside the court house
https://www.innercitypress.com/sbf1juryselectionicp100323.html
Scroll up from the bottom
Summary of the events inside the court house as per chatGPT
https://twitter.com/cohenluc/status/1709273900020809797
SBF in sketch... looks guilty already haha
https://cointelegraph.com/news/highlights-ftx-founder-sam-bankman-fried-first-day-trial
5 highlights of Sam Bankman-Fried’s first day of trial
Timeline of the FTX event saga:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TWpOl6ySHg0
Video summary of the case (0:30 to 3:20)
Witness to Testify
Few of the people and entities who are to testify, “
“Anthony Scaramucci, Trabucco, Sequoia Capital, BlockFi, Genesis, Skybridge, Anchorage, Binance, Celsius, Silvergate & Signature Bank”
https://x.com/Crypto_TownHall/status/1709299018038210909?s=20
Tweet on the list of possible witness
1st paragraph on the possible witness list
SBF was never offered a plea deal
https://x.com/AP_Abacus/status/1709264300626370667?s=20
Tweet
Anthropic Brings in $500 million
FTX $500 million investment now valued at $4.6 billion
https://x.com/AFTXcreditor/status/1709345555971707368?s=20
Anthropic now 20-30B valuation tweet
Anthropic valuations in the line of OpenAI
https://twitter.com/ThomasBraziel/status/1707090850117796084?s=20
Anthropic valuation tweet
FTX current assets v/s claims what the hole was, and what this could mean for creditors
FTX owns $3.4 billion in cryptocurrencies initially
https://x.com/vonlooten/status/1703571867314139366?s=20
Crypto ownership tweet
Currently FTX owns close to $7 Billion as a result of which claims shoot up to $7.3 billions
https://x.com/CA__Bitcoin/status/1707424314684067947?s=20
Tweet on the claim
So does this mean there could be full payout for FTX creditors ?
1st paragraph
The biggest Investor/loser in FTX
Jump lost 200m
Some of the shenanigans voicing their opinion
https://x.com/blocknewsdotcom/status/1709289432065650713?s=52&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Kevin O’Leary stated that all "crypto cowboys" will soon be gone.
_________________________________________________________
US Government Frames Bitcoin Privacy As "Criminal”
https://www.zerohedge.com/crypto/us-government-frames-bitcoin-privacy-criminalLink to article
__________________________________________________________
VANECK MEME:
“LOW VOLUME, just like your jpegs.
https://twitter.com/vaneck_us/status/1709353826937889152?t=EqIYcUdOrcPYSx-DiGV1Yw&s=19
Link to VanEck’s tweet
Volume about 1/10th of expectations
https://x.com/NorthRockLP/status/1708883260485579258?s=20
Have to adjust volumes way lower
→ VanEck’s new ETH futures ETF doing less volume than almost any pair in the top 200 cryptocurrencies by market cap.
https://x.com/TheFlowHorse/status/1709263673569529934?s=20
Link to tweet
__________________________________________________________
ROLLBIT NEWS:
RLB Buys & Burns are now entirely on-chain
https://x.com/Lucky_Rollbit/status/1709277506052780512?s=20
Link to announcement
Rollbot has been buying & burning $RLB every hour of every day for 8 weeks now
https://x.com/rollbitcom/status/1709313104415220024?s=20
Rollbit revenue overview
Rollbit whale causing the price to drop sharply
https://twitter.com/spotonchain/status/1709478025732169974?t=2JzMShH1z02_xconAvP3PA&s=19
Rollbit Whale explanation with charts
_______________________________________________________
TWEET DUMP:
https://x.com/twobitidiot/status/1709195812507435117?s=20
Founder of Messari is pretty convinced and wants SBF in prison
https://x.com/innercitypress?s=20
this guy is going to live tweet when it starts
https://x.com/kaikodata/status/1709206673343356993?s=46&t=j_8LBucWTFicgNch9CveBg
Q3 for BTC + ETH
https://x.com/nic__carter/status/1709196298556002339?s=20
Harsh words coming from Nic Carter criticizing M.Lewis book.
https://x.com/northrocklp/status/1709211669463990565?s=52&t=BbbdUAVCLlG7OcC85jzWLA
Hal’s take on MSTR. No reason to own the stock once once an ETF is approved.
https://x.com/jimmyvs24/status/1709213048177606999?s=52&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Yesterday we had one of the biggest exchange outflows of this year
https://x.com/dessislavaiane2/status/1709229784562053310?s=52&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Zero fees trade volume on Binance is down to a multi-year low.
https://x.com/thedefivillain/status/1709218837101429016?s=20
the entirety of the rotation game so far this year
https://x.com/dunleavy89/status/1708905540430991581?s=20
Spot buying pre ETF to be seeded
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1709187503570219240?s=20
strategic oil reserves
https://x.com/AntonioMJuliano/status/1709232888913211455?s=20
Reminder that DYDX is a US based company, and they are actively getting out
https://x.com/WuBlockchain/status/1709219940094669187?s=20
crazy stats for FT
https://x.com/TheBlock__/status/1709247767548190937?s=20
starknet no tokens till april
https://x.com/ki_young_ju/status/1709258654476566871?s=20
not ideal
https://x.com/RaoulGMI/status/1709261961265914247?s=20
bank index
https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/1709206757388566649?s=20
Shorts on treasuries
https://x.com/digitalassetbuy/status/1708949348912877847?s=46
holy shit
https://twitter.com/RaoulGMI/status/1709331694271009126?t=F08mfUsU0RdX9hiZShCShw&s=19
New Raoul Pal channel
https://x.com/WuBlockchain/status/1709388223489921337?s=20
Opensea Launches Opensea Studio
https://x.com/cryptoquant_com/status/1709393672234823806?s=52&t=BbbdUAVCLlG7OcC85jzWLA
Huge BTC inflows into Kraken
https://x.com/joeconsorti/status/1709338314342269273?s=52&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Total US debt just rose $275 billion in one day
https://x.com/jjcmoreno/status/1709394841019281755?s=46&t=gSUbNjAhbXbf1bk77CCJtA
PYUSD
https://x.com/GameofTrades_/status/1709179470194864184?s=20
Gold is officially the most oversold its been since Dec 2016