Welcome Banter Fam,
This is our new newsletter featuring the Crypto Banter show notes.
Each day, our research team assembles the doc, which Ran then uses to put the show together.
Unfiltered and raw, here you'll be able to see Ran's thoughts on the topics discussed in the show.
Let’s dive in! And don’t forget to subscribe below!
Ran’s Show Notes
WHAT DID I LEARN
→ Everyone is quite excited about the ETF but we need to understand that the trade is already over. We should move on to the next one which is ETH potentially.
→ While the BTC.D looks to get its last leg up, we are seeing ETHBTC sitting at a pretty crucial spot. A bounce here from ETH could be legendary.
→ While BTC remained quite stable, the vast majority of altcoins took a hit, with only a few exceptions. Some are calling this move a coordinated one, in order to avoid the volatility of BTC during the last few steps ahead of the ETF deadline. One thing is certain, the attention goes into BTC this week, but still, there are a few altcoins or ecosystems that show strength. Anyways, if there will be a continuation of this correction, and if we’re going deeper to the downside, the fundamentals don’t change and the outlook remains bullish.
→The BTC ecosystem is like using free leverage on Bitcoin! It's perfect if you want to go up the risk curve and outperform BTC as the market corrects, projects like Stacks and even riskier Stacks ecosystem tokens like ALEX have been doing great while other alts are bleeding!
→The DePin narrative has also shown relative strength, projects like ATOR, AKASH & Pocket have outperformed the market in the last 7 days. One of the main reasons is it's a brand new narrative and Messari came out with an in-depth report on DePin!
WHAT CAN I DO:
→ Let’s not live in the past by talking about the BTC ETF trade. It is the time to get into ETH while it is printing a macro bottom with the ETF narrative incoming!!
→
→ This correction brings many opportunities, and if it goes lower, it might be our last chance to accumulate more serious. We shouldn’t be surprised if we’re going lower, because if we’re looking back, there are multiple confluences saying that a correction may happen now, prior to the halving. Buying BTC may not be the best thing to do now, as eventually, the attention will go back into alts after all the hype around the ETF will diminish and people may sell profits from the BTC trade into alts. A more potentially profitable trade would be to look at the BTC ecosystem instead.
→If BTC is bullish post-ETF approvals into ETF opening some of the best trades will come from the Bitcoin ecosystem, whether its Stacks with the Nakamoto upgrade as its catalyst or BRC20 enabling tokens like MultiBit bridge & TRAC Bitcoin & Ordinals main oracle being built, these are all riskier trades that if BTC dominance continues to rise and BTC price as well will turn out great while other alts bleed.
→Also important to buy back main DePin narrative tokens like Bittensor the leading AI narrative token & also look to other important DePin projects showing strength like AKASH/ATOR or possible buy back opportunities like Arweave!
INTRO
→ Everyone is talking about the Bitcoin trade and how it will react to the ETF approval news but in reality, the trade is already over. It is long gone now!!
https://x.com/cryptomanran/status/1742517988345946448?s=20
Your tweet shows that next we have the ETH ETF trade and then SOL futures ETF trade.
→ Yes, the ETF trade is coming to an end. Bitcoin has gone up more than 755% since the filing. Let’s move onto the next trade please!!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/rdU9MTVl/
There are two important charts that must be looked upon:
The important chart to see atm is the BTC.D which is trying to breakout as we approach the final deadline of the ETF.
On the other hand, it is clear how crucial the support is for ETHBTC. Is this time time for ETH to shine?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/C1tVXjki/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/qrfUQD8R/
After looking at both BTC.D and ETHBTC, it is clear that one is looking to top out and the other is ready to bottom out. Now we need to be on the right side of the markets!!
→ There has to be a correction/flush before the rotation and we also have the unfilled CME gap that can pull the price down.
https://x.com/cryptomanran/status/1742534062500089950?s=20
Your tweet has the visual of unfilled CME gaps.
→ One thing we are seeing is that CME did not budge on the flush, or even now. Still bullish!!
→ Why is the tradefi so reluctant for BTC spot ETF. The reason is simple. It is the returns they will get from Bitcoin!!
https://app.artemis.xyz/overview
Altcoins down. What’s next?
We saw those red numbers across altcoins, but this should not be seen as a surprise, both from a technical analysis and fundamentals perspective.
May this altcoin correction continue?
→ Everyone wants to see their altcoin bags pumping, but the truth is that this week, all eyes are on Bitcoin. We need to let this dip play out.
https://x.com/cryptorecruitr/status/1744135782737035367?s=20
All eyes on BTC.
→ alts total mcap has retraced the wick
https://x.com/mochains/status/1744199988983284114?s=20
→ It seems like altcoins are facing a decisive level right now, making us wonder whether we should sell or we should buy.
https://x.com/MatthewHyland_/status/1744153049369620757?s=20
Decisive point for altcoins
→ If we’re looking at the altcoins market cap, it seems like the scenario could be playing out the same or similar with the previous market cycle. What happened then is a re-test after breaking out from the accumulation range.
https://x.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1744273745546514559?s=20
Retest, leading to accumulation range?
→ A potential reason for this retest of accumulation range could be seen on this chart.
https://x.com/mochains/status/1744199988983284114?s=20
Wick down
→ One thing is certain, we are not even close to proper altseason yet. But what is also interesting is that if we’re looking back TOTAL3 went up over 3,000% last cycle, while now we only experienced an 85% pump. Around this level during last cycle, we’ve experienced quite a noticeable drop in terms of altcoins market cap.
https://x.com/brett_eth/status/1744172203006931441?s=20
Altcoins market cap
→ Even tokens with strength seemed to have a correction, which makes people wonder why it happened that way. Here’s a theory regarding this altcoin correction.
https://x.com/rektbuildr/status/1744269358757564666?s=20
People wondering why, coming up with theories
→ But still, even if a correction would take place, even if we would reach $30k level, both the market structure and the fundamentals would look good.
https://x.com/CryptoJelleNL/status/1744272551470064033?s=20
Still bullish even if a correction would take place
→ Another reason to be bullish despite all these corrections is the crypto liquidity, which is getting closer to be positive.
https://x.com/tedtalksmacro/status/1744258397015539871?s=20
Crypto liquidity
→ Digital asset investment products saw inflows totalling $151m in the first week of 2024.
https://x.com/cryptounfolded/status/1744317704662827066?s=20
Inflows
Should you buy BTC?
→ What is going on suggests that it might be Bitcoin season right now, but only for a short while, and the confirmation of that should be the reaction of the ETF news that has to come this week.
https://x.com/blknoiz06/status/1744223461533192204?s=20
Bitcoin season
→ Many people are talking about BTC season or capital rotation into BTC, so does Kyle Chasse. He says that when we see dominance decline, we’ll see alts become lively again.
https://x.com/kyle_chasse/status/1744262735532048391?s=20
Capital rotation
→ Aping into Bitcoin might not be the right approach. If we’re comparing to previous cycles, we didn’t have a serious pullback for BTC, and it feels like there is a due for that.
https://x.com/_Checkmatey_/status/1744251149627326533?s=20
No serious correction recently
→ According to Rekt capital’s chart, Bitcoin typically experiences a Pre-Halving rally approximately 60 days before the actual Halving (light blue). So, if a more significant correction is to happen in the Pre-Halving period (orange), it is likely to occur within the next 40 days.
https://x.com/rektcapital/status/1743764270737715695?s=20
Rekt Capital’s tweet regarding a potential correction
→ Another reason why you shouldn’t buy BTC instead is because this retest for the altcoin market cap could bring really good opportunities to accumulate altcoins before they take off.
https://x.com/open4profit/status/1744201051849499096?s=20
Altcoin opportunities
ETH next?
→ There’s no news that all eyes are on BTC and all the attention is there. But what if you would prepare early for the next move?
https://x.com/coinmamba/status/1744280899707969847?s=20
ETH currently sitting like BTC at $28k?
→ Some say what is going on now with ETH is the same like what happened with SOL last year.
https://x.com/loomdart/status/1744104240153317536?s=20
ETH <-> SOL
→ The Above thesis takes into consideration the fact that once the Bitcoin ETF is approved, Ethereum ETF could be next.
https://x.com/SatoshiFlipper/status/1743641249410588782?s=20
Not bullish enough on ETH?
→ Let’s take a look at the ETH/BTC chart.
https://x.com/intocryptoverse/status/1744210941019910421?s=20
ETH/BTC
→ But keep in mind that this can go even lower if the Bitcoin ETF gets approved.
https://x.com/jimmyvs24/status/1744300731669135698?s=20
Could ETH/BTC nuke?
→ This could be only a speculation and a quick trade, because, from a different point of view, Ethereum seems to be smashed by other L1s.
https://x.com/martypartymusic/status/1744082574815973502?s=20
Flows moving from ETH to other networks
https://x.com/martypartymusic/status/1744091619798720607?s=20
ETH vs BTC | SOL vs BTC
Look for strength
This dip brings many opportunities across altcoins, thus you need to take advantage of that and seek the winners and the strength.
→ Outperforming narratives for 2024.
https://x.com/Flowslikeosmo/status/1743664863136666055?s=20
→ When it comes to cross chain activity, it seems like flows are going from Ethereum into other networks like SUI, SOL, ARB and SEI.
→ SUI looking like SEI before it went up.
https://x.com/arrogantfrfr/status/1743653420546801926?s=20
→ Whales and institutions accumulating LINK.
https://x.com/lookonchain/status/1744009358168703356?s=20
→ Injective team teasing
https://x.com/Injective_/status/1744137034975838472?s=20
→ INJ to be the first L1 that makes new highs?
https://x.com/Bluntz_Capital/status/1744244392465142236?s=20
→ TIA has a correction as well, but still looks strong.
https://twitter.com/0xKNL__/status/1744193167124042095?t=BV9fnOxBJfTmrOzI9Hlk2g&s=19
→ Get the most out of these opportunities by seeking alpha. Here’s a good method to put your $TIA at work.
https://x.com/phtevenstrong/status/1744092272507932747?s=20
→ $TIA stakers will likely profit in the upcoming days. Some staked weeks ago and received a $1000+ $DYM airdrop last week. Here is a guide to stake $TIA for potential airdrops.
https://x.com/BillionAireDau/status/1744306508668547231?s=20
→ AVAX has been added to Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund $GDLC.
https://x.com/Flowslikeosmo/status/1743680141419251116?s=20
BTC Ecosystem
A more degen play is the btc ecosystem why? BTC exposure but also a bit down the risk curve.
Bitcoin outperformed everything with only a small part of global capital having access to it, what happens now when a tidal wave of capital runs into a tightly held fixed-supply asset? If you want exposure and don't want leverage BTC ecosystem is the place to be at!
→Odds of approval are at 90% according to bloomberg and 85% according to polymarket
https://x.com/CoinDesk/status/1744284279855587782?s=20
s
STX
→Stacks outperforming BTC and every single other Mid Cap, why? BTC beta & Nakamoto Upgrade
→When compared to ETH L2s OP/ARB Stacks is definitely undervalued market cap wise and also FDV wise!
Stacks Market Cap and FDV
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/stacks/
Tweet comparing OP/ARB VS Stacks being undervalued
https://x.com/EffortCapital/status/1744038718372016302?s=20
→Potential in Stacks is to unlock the Bitcoin economy and serve as the main BTC layer for smart contracts, we are talking about unlocking a potential 1 Trillion dollar economy!
https://x.com/Stacks/status/1741095295822258501?s=20
→Muuneb explains the Stacks thesis
https://x.com/Stacks/status/1743382659412209741?s=20
→Tim Draper bullish Stacks!
https://x.com/Stacks/status/1742544865378861135?s=20
→Stacks Ecosystem!
https://www.stacks.co/explore/ecosystem?category=All+Teams
ALEX
→Within the STX ecosystem the main project currently is ALEX, the main Stacks DEX and bridge, already doing great numbers and not stopping!
https://app.alexlab.co/analytics/overview (ALEX stats)
WELSH
→Welsh Corgi is the first Bitcoin meme created over 2y ago, DEV dumped all his tokens and is now a community lead project! Main liquidity pair is being traded on ALEX against STX!
Other BTC Ecosystem tokens:
MUBI
→MultiBit is Unlocking liquidity for BRC20s on EVM networks & helping bridge the BTC NFT landscape!
→Currently at 120M market cap
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/multibit/
→Soon Multibit will allow for SOL/BTC bridged assets as well
https://x.com/Multibit_Bridge/status/1738775874768347327?s=20
→You can now bridge BTC NFTs into EVM and vice versa! Cross chain NFT bridging is an important narrative that MUBI is leading!
https://x.com/Multibit_Bridge/status/1743873735633891392?s=20
→Multibit bridge has done over 200M in volume!
https://app.multibit.exchange/dashboard
TRAC
→TRAC is setting up to become the main BTC & Ordinal Oracle!
→“Trac Core acts as a comprehensive tool that sifts through, tidies up, and simplifies the access to Bitcoin’s expansive data.“
https://medium.com/trac-systems/trac-ecosystem-ff99787585d4
Updates re ETF & Week Ahead section
Monday to Wednesday: ETF
→ This thread explains everything that was left until today. Approval should come on Wednesday!!https://twitter.com/NateGeraci/status/1744164165521182894?t=EIVUQpsqFyrSupPHyV4Yag&s=19
→ Potential timeline for the ETF
https://x.com/SGJohnsson/status/1744179562873847936?s=20#
→ Here we go: S-1s are here!!
EDGAR Filing Documents for 0000930413-24-000044 (sec.gov)VanEck
EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001193125-24-003823 (sec.gov)Ark21
EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001437749-24-000785 (sec.gov)IsharesEDGAR Filing Documents for 0001193125-24-003812 (sec.gov)Invesco~EDGAR Filing Documents for 0001214659-24-000371 (sec.gov)WisdomtreeEDGAR Filing Documents for 0001839882-24-000518 (sec.gov)Valkyrie
→ Lot of competition in the fees. Proper fee warhttps://x.com/kgreifeld/status/1744325419875049528?s=20
→ It is a race!! https://x.com/SplitCapital/status/1744326743136125200?s=20
→ This is a very small number tbh.https://x.com/SplitCapital/status/1744318501836181885?s=20
→ The keyword Bitcoin ETF” unexpectedly surged on Google Trends, reaching a peak of 100https://twitter.com/Coin98Analytics/status/1744272652662096114?t=Q0EqX7NZL3RCXrQ21HahBg&s=19
→ Here’s the 25 most successful ETF launches of all time and you can see BlackRock dominates the top 10. https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1743392167446385066?t=AcsSI2gE5WiTavDQ0HCESg&s=19
→ Eric Balchunas said that the probability of failure of the Bitcoin spot ETF has dropped from 10% to only 5%https://twitter.com/EricBalchunas/status/1743640927225229673?t=d4IlcZ3QhSM61XIgOJlGGg&s=19
Thursday
→ U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) YoYhttps://in.investing.com/economic-calendar/cpi-733Forecast: 3.2%
→ 65% odds are in favour of rate cut in March 2024https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
→ Fed pivot expectations are through the roof.https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1744094326173429884?t=lcMGuZkxuLlqJCvwirkuHA&s=19
Friday
→ U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) MoMhttps://in.investing.com/economic-calendar/ppi-238Forecast: 0.1%
→ Pretty important earnings coming out this weekhttps://twitter.com/Investingcom/status/1743997956838064444?t=4se9DucHmDyD9NUBD1ic4Q&s=19____________________________________________________________________________
DePin strength
Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks
→Coinmarketcap List of main DePin narrative projects:
https://coinmarketcap.com/view/distributed-computing/
→Messari DePin List:
https://messari.io/assets/depin?sort=Price+Change+24H%3Adesc
→Messari’s “State of DePin”
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://messari.io/report-pdf/f125632168e9a04e016fe43bc551f412389eda4f.pdf
Breakdown of 6 DePin Categories page 7 Messari report
Smart Money bets page 8 Messari report
→Messari report tweet summing up most important projects:
Solana Best Chain For DePIN
DePIN-Focused L1s - IoTEX & Peaq network
DePin focused Rollups Caldera & Eclipse
https://x.com/DistilledCrypto/status/1743628465104965957?s=20
→According to Messari and our research the best ones to be looking at are:
Render
Bittensor
Akash
ATOR
Arweave
ENTERTAINMENT SECTION
https://x.com/AltcoinGordon/status/1744287777909293284?s=20
Michael Saylor if the ETF gets denied
https://x.com/gaybitcoins/status/1744031513434337624?s=20
BTC Spot ETF vs SEC
https://x.com/naiivememe/status/1743812188807250131?s=20
Crypto holders not sleeping right now
https://x.com/naiivememe/status/1743570787452559476?s=20
Stock trader vs Bitcoiner
https://x.com/dubzyxbt/status/1743935914898841615?s=20
Crypto holders risk tolerance
https://x.com/KBNo185/status/1744199709235806655?s=20
We need her
TWEET DUMP
https://x.com/sandraaleow/status/1744043843874623567?s=20
FriendTech's decline
https://x.com/zoomeroracle/status/1744109220214067681?s=46&t=wUWV-jRgHFCW5DkenBA3OQ
POKT
https://x.com/alextalkstweets/status/1744055944680804696?s=20
However unlikely ETF Bitcoin can be liquidated and seized by the U.S government
https://x.com/3orovik/status/1744099997988049267?s=20
Lawyer sending $1.2m to Satoshi
https://x.com/joshyysmartt/status/1744123704320151785?s=48
Full list of DeFi Projects coming to Injective mainnet
https://twitter.com/JanvanEck3/status/1744136106260439287
Van Eck teasing again
https://twitter.com/cc_yborg/status/1744139298419478742
Short opportunities on alts
https://twitter.com/abetrade/status/1744142401596219610/photo/1
Adam's view on the ETF approval trade
https://x.com/OuttaTheBlock/status/1744184617572385177?t=EtimwkQN8dGS0kkn9lKFGw&s=08
BTC dominance
https://twitter.com/jimmyvs24/status/1744040870976868586?t=n6YMpJpXOcpb0YUZR2XJbA&s=19
all cohorts are accumulating again.
https://x.com/algodtrading/status/1744123314144944142?s=46
when a trader becomes an investor
https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/1743991285214527532?s=20
Vitalik
https://x.com/maxkeiser/status/1744021869408276745?s=20
full scenario from Max on how this will be a bad for the ETf investors.
https://x.com/kyle_chasse/status/1744231435882451321?s=46&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Kyle’s outlook regarding the ETF.
https://x.com/joshyysmartt/status/1744123704320151785?s=46&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Injective protocols.
https://x.com/kyle_chasse/status/1744236937320214855?s=48
Crypto watchlist for dips
https://x.com/ai_bond_connery/status/1744160450395168829?s=46&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
TAO upgrade. Comprehensive tweet.
https://x.com/GameofTrades_/status/1744011012431581660?s=20
Recession searches have now collapsed.
https://x.com/multi_finance/status/1744160827601772840?s=46&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Fed securities portfolio statistics.
https://x.com/theblock__/status/1744211529707233557?s=46&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
The number of businesses accepting BTC nearly tripled in 2023.
https://x.com/degeneratenews/status/1744186275668582455?s=46&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Bonk to be listed on OKX - today.
https://x.com/juliweb3/status/1743958676594098193?s=46&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Binance-backed projects with confirmed airdrops. Thread.
https://x.com/HawkOfCrypto/status/1743990243337146834?s=20
ATOR
https://x.com/crypto_mckenna/status/1744199648682672219?s=46&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Last night’s dip explanation.
https://twitter.com/ercwl/status/1744227449670402064?t=y_86T-fQdk3QLOeMSyozRA&s=19
Eric Wall called both the Solana bottom and TOP
https://x.com/VitalikButerin/status/1743991285214527532?s=20
portfolio advice from Vitalik
https://x.com/axeladlerjr/status/1744256456315076932?s=46&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Open Interest RSI.
https://x.com/rewkang/status/1744156758979813733?s=46&t=wUWV-jRgHFCW5DkenBA3OQ
ORDI a good long if etf approved?
https://x.com/jimmyvs24/status/1744040870976868586?s=46&t=wUWV-jRgHFCW5DkenBA3OQ
all cohorts outpacing issuance
https://x.com/d_gilz/status/1744173888458961148?s=46&t=wUWV-jRgHFCW5DkenBA3OQ
mini pops throughout year
https://x.com/fknmarqu/status/1744080244586197334?s=46&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
USD value of stake needed to cover tx fees across multiple blockchains, with Solana being the cheapest in this analysis.
https://x.com/TheBlock__/status/1744267526274437322?s=20
Japan e-commerce company to accept BTC
https://x.com/0xhess/status/1744050342063489117?s=20
Astroport overview, covering Sei network
https://x.com/thedefivillain/status/1744308462408884265?s=46&t=_fxxs-N1AxrAVQBPWRyplw
Some ETF thoughts.